After a shortlist Thursday, Major League Baseball is back in full from All-Star Break tonight with 14 games on the agenda.
There are a number of attractive matches, many aces on the heap, and our analyzers are all over the place, with choices including: Cubs vs. Phillies, Yankees vs. Orioles, Padres vs. Mets, Guardians vs. White Sox and Rocky vs. Brewer.
Here are our top five bets from Friday’s MLB roster.
MLB Odds and Choices
Cubs vs. Phyllis
Brad Cunningham: Justin Steele is one of MLB’s most underrated starting pitchers. His ERA sits at 4.15, but his forecast for ERA is more than half running at 3.56.
It doesn’t allow for a lot of hard contact (33.5% swipes are allowed), and the opposing hitters only have a 2.9% barrel rate against it and only 296 xwOBA is allowed.
He primarily uses the fastball/slider combo, which would work great against the Phillies lineup that ranks 13th against fastballs and 15th against sliders.
Kyle Gibson has been pretty average this season with xERA at 4.25. His last two games before the All-Star break were really good, but in his previous six starts before those two starts, he allowed 23 points earned.
The main problem with his main tone of voice, which is heavy, is getting good hits in the .354 xwOBA and .284 xBA. The Cubs are one of the best teams in baseball against a diver with a rating of +25.9 per season. Chicago is also in the top half of baseball in terms of WOBA and WRC+ against the right pitch.
I have Cubs projected as -117 as a favourite, so I like the value on it at +114 and will play anything for the extra money.
Yankees vs. Orioles
DJ James: Jameson Taeyeon struggled during his last five posts. In all but one, at least three earned runs were allowed.
The Baltimore will face the Orioles who were very hot at the start of the All-Star break. Tyler Wells has been fantastic with a 3.38 ERA and 3.41 xERA, so he’s right to meet expectations. Additionally, Wells allows an average exit speed of 87.7 mph, which ranks 71 percent of the MLB.
The Orioles had success against the right-hand throw last month. The Yankees own 122 wRC+ for 112 Orioles.
Baltimore should be more than able to score early and is often out of Taillon. He was also great out of the ‘pen, ranking first in the MLB at 3.03 xFIP versus 3.22 for the Yankees.
In the end, the Orioles will probably be even close to the money in this game. Take them to +110.
Padres vs. dishes
Jules Posner: Max Scherzer has been at war since returning from a slash injury and is looking to continue that trend on Friday night against Padres.
Speaking of trends, the Mets’ offensive against RHP has struggled at home for the past two weeks. However, they are still the fourth best attack against RHP at home in MLB over the course of the season, so it may be due to the positive dip.
They might have a good chance against Yo Darvish, who is well below average this season. Darvish has posted a 5.25 ERA, 4.08 FIP and 4.09 xFIP over 48 runs on the road this season. He hasn’t been able to relax away from Petco Park this season.
In addition, Padres took the plunge right before the All-Star break, posting the third highest-grossing ERA in the two weeks leading up to the break.
The Padres are still a good team, but the betting match favors the Mets strongly, and their money streak isn’t an amazing value today.
Their running line is currently in the +125 neighborhood, and if it stays in that range, it’s worth the risk to support them and Scherzer.
Guardians vs. white socks
Sean Zerrillo: I expected The Guardians to be a little underpowered in the first five rounds (expected +113, 47% implied) and the full game (expected +108, 48.1% implied). You can lower these bets to +122 (45% implicit) and +117 (46.1% implicit) – either bet with an advantage of more than 2% over my typical streak.
Cleveland has advantages in Bullpen (ninth in xFIP, 10th in K-BB% vs 11 and 13 for Chicago) and in defense (8th in defensive saves, 6th in above-average Outs; compared to 21 and 24 for Chicago). In addition, the Guardians’ attack (107 wrC +, 8) performed significantly better against the right throw than the White Sox (93 wRC +, 22). However, I’m modeling these offensive units with level terms.
I don’t see a wide gap between Cal Quantrill (4.52 xERA, 4.65 xFIP, 4.81 SIERA) and Lucas Giolito (4.49 xERA, 3.66 xFIP, 3.61 SIERA) as the market dictates. Giolito’s speedball has averaged over 94 mph over the past three seasons, but his speed has dropped to 93 mph this year and has fallen further to 92.4 mph and 91.9 mph on his most recent outings.
Giolito’s average (40%) is the lowest mark of his career, and he could allow walks and deep accounts against a hard-to-write Cleveland offense (18.6%) or generate a whiff (8.9%) of anything else. team in baseball. Right-handed shooters have more difficulty (17.7%) hitting hits against Cleveland than left-handers (21.1%, 11th place) as well.
The Guardians tick many boxes here as an underdog and are my most important predicted betting advantage on Friday night.
Rocky vs. bruer
Tony Sartori: The All-Star Break is exactly what brewers needed when they dropped three times in a row at the All-Star Game. A fellow member of the gambling community on Twitter (CalSportsLV) found us a great trend for this game, and we’re going to support it.
Since 2013, teams that have lost their last two games and come back from break as favorites (-130) or above, have gone up 17-1 in a row (94%). Of these 17 wins, teams have covered the running streak 11 times (65%).
We support this strong trend as Corbin Burns is set to take from the right to Milwaukee. By 18 starts this season, the Burnes are 7-4 with a 2.14 ERA and 0.90 WHIP.
While those numbers are clearly large, Burns has been particularly dominant lately. During his last six starts, Burns was 4-0 with a 1.54 ERA and 0.78 WHIP.
I don’t expect Burns to slow down anytime soon because his metrics are just as prominent as his surface level stats. This season, the Burnes boast .258 xwOBA, .198 xBA and .309 xSLG.
At the start of his only career home run against Colorado, Burns only allowed one three-stroke run in six innings while notching seven. Burns should get plenty of running support in this game as the Brewers are set to face right-handed Antonio Cinzatella.
Through 13 starts this season, Senzatella is 3-5 with 4.95 ERA and 1.80 lashes. His scales are just as poor as he has a .371 xwOBA, .328 xBA and .488 xSLG.
Senzatella has been in particularly bad shape lately. Over his last eight starts, Senzatella is 1-4 with a 5.75 ERA and 1.75 whip.
This game is as lopsided text match as you can get, and the brewers should be able to get back on track on their return from break. I would like to play this line until (-130).
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